Imagine a Looming Saudi-U.S. ‘Two-State’ Trap
(The Times of Israel) – Imagine for a moment that you are the prime minister of Israel. Imagine also it is still February 28. You just have watched U.S. President Donald Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance boot Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky from the White House for disagreeing with them.
You saw the Americans attack their erstwhile ally for resisting concessions they implied he must make for what they called peace with Ukraine’s mortal enemy, Vladimir Putin’s Russia. Yes, Zelensky played a weak hand poorly, perhaps thanks to advice from congressional Democrats. But three years into Russia’s blood-soaked invasion of Ukraine, it occupies 20 percent of the country and grinds up more.
You recall that the U.S. Congress has given Zelensky standing ovations. You got them too, you remember. Among those applauding loudest were Republicans, members of Trump and Vance’s own party. But now many of those same supporters of Ukraine, of Israel, echo administration condemnations of Zelensky.
A disturbing thought occurs to you. Saudi Arabia’s de facto leader, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman—a person who like Trump seems always to be in a hurry—no doubt watched the same Oval Office spectacle. What if he called the president and the following conversation unfolded:
“Mr. President, you were right. It was great television!”
“Thank you, MBS. You know that unlike Sleepy Joe, I’m a true friend.”
Bin Salman: “That’s why I’m calling. Not only can you save Ukraine from fighting to its own death, but you also are the only one who can make peace between Israelis and Palestinians.”
Trump: “Go on …”
MBS: “It’s basic carrot-and-stick. We both know Bibi seeks a deal with Saudi Arabia as capstone and vindication of his career.”
Trump: “Yeah, he’s told me as much. His eagerness is almost pathetic.”
MBS: “Well, let’s give it to him. In exchange, as we Saudi always have said, a two-state solution for the Palestinians.”
Trump: “But the Israelis will never agree to a Gaza Strip and West Bank state. Especially not after Hamas’ October 7, 2023 massacre. And Gaza’s a demolition site, as I’ve said. Anyway, I learned in my first term that the Palestinians cannot be trusted.”
MBS: “True and true, regarding Gaza demolition and the Palestinians. All the more reason the world will applaud the person who makes peace between them and the Israelis. As for Israelis saying Palestinians killed any two-state deal, aren’t the Jews, I mean, isn’t Israel every bit as reliant on American support as Ukraine?”
Trump: “Like Taiwan, which pays us nothing! And don’t get me started on the Germans and French! Talk about free-riders!”
MBS: “Mr. President, you’ll be surprised at how flexible Israelis can be. Especially if you remind them about Zelensky.”
Trump: “Hmm, two Nobel Peace Prizes in the same year. How soon can you come to Washington?”
MBS: “Whenever it fits your schedule.”
The conversation ends but your imagination is still working. It tells you that vote you instructed your U.N. ambassador to make in February, the one siding with Russia and the United States on a resolution calling for an end to the Ukraine war but not identifying Russians as aggressors, gained Israel nothing.
As Trump and Putin spoke over Zelensky’s head before his D.C. disaster, the president and crown prince can do to you. After all, Trump negotiated a U.S. retreat from Afghanistan while excluding the Kabul government and NATO allies. President Biden’s chaotic final bug out compounded what his predecessor arranged. Hell, President Eisenhower told South Korea to stop fighting North Korea in 1953 or lose U.S. aid.
Then another disturbing thought: How long before the Iranians call, offering a nuclear deal to Washington in exchange for guarantees against Israeli attacks?
As imaginary prime minister, you revise the agenda for tomorrow’s cabinet meeting:
*Item 1—Strike Iran’s growing nuclear weapons program immediately. In conjunction with the United States if possible; if not, alone. The window opened by destroying Iran’s air defenses might close fast.
Item 2—Prevent rebuilding of Gaza unless Palestinian society is de-Nazified, as was Germany after its World War II defeat. But de-Nazification is unlikely. It would mean, according to Hussein Aboubakr Mansour, erasing the century-old Palestinian national identity. That identity rests not on construction of a 22nd Arab country but destruction of the one Jewish state. October 7 was not an aberration but an affirmation of that identity. So, focus intensified public diplomacy on that real root cause.
*Item 3—Stop imaging things and get to work.
